Is Claude also doing something like this? I saw my Fable limit resetting earlier than expected.
zwily•Jul 18, 2026
It did once. That's all I know of though. Nothing like Codex.
PacificSpecific•Jul 19, 2026
I've had this too on my personal pro plan and also when I run the usage command it says it's resetting tomorrow rather than getting cut off.
I'm trying to squeeze what I can in the meantime but I feel like they said it was getting cut off multiple times and they keep extending and possibly resetting it (havent been looking close enough to know for sure)
rovr138•Jul 19, 2026
They had an issue yesterday that said Fable needed extra usage.
No, they've been clear about the fact that Fable is staying in indefinitely now.
They also extended the 50% extra usage thing through to August 19.
viccis•Jul 19, 2026
Looks like no Fable for Pro. Will likely be cancelling my Pro account.
nullbio•Jul 19, 2026
Nope. Anthropic is incredibly greedy and always has been.
usef-•Jul 19, 2026
They're far shorter of GPUs, apparently. OpenAI made huge hardware deals last year (which look less crazy now).
nzeid•Jul 18, 2026
Forgive my ignorance... Usage limits reset for 100% of customers at the same instant?
jrflo•Jul 18, 2026
Originally yes, everyone's usage limit went back to 100% at the same time regardless of if you were at 0% or 99%. Now they tend to give out "banked" resets where users can choose when to use it for up to a month (except the most recent one, which I think was non-banked)
minimaxir•Jul 19, 2026
Over the last 2 weeks, 6 of the resets are direct to the usage limit.
In the same timeframe, 2 additional resets were banked.
ipsum2•Jul 19, 2026
They realized the banked resets were too expensive, so they stopped giving those out for the last 2 resets.
damsta•Jul 19, 2026
Are they more expensive? I think it's a clever tactic that avoids sudden increased workload, because users may "save" their resets when they need some additional work done.
herpdyderp•Jul 19, 2026
My next question is: why? Purely marketing tactics?
behnamoh•Jul 18, 2026
How long is this gonna last? OpenAI obviously is doing it to gain mindshare but they're burning money before their IPO and can't sustain these resets.
They've bought a lot of dev goodwill tho, which matters I guess.
thehamkercat•Jul 18, 2026
They also got a lot of goodwill by letting people use codex subscription in any harness they want, anywhere they want
jrflo•Jul 18, 2026
I think it's mostly to spread hype for the new models. Sol can be ridiculously long running, even without /goal so it can run for 12hr+ on a problem with defined and verifiable output. So it's a good way for people to get hyped about the capabilities without worrying about usage limits.
doawoo•Jul 18, 2026
coworker tried Sol the other day and it sat and thought for 10 minutes before maxing out our company's per-user weekly limit lol
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
Sol is really not optmised for corporate plans. The sane way to use it is via a personal subscription.
ssl-3•Jul 19, 2026
Are Codex users even a drop in the bucket of overall use? I mean, it's a pretty specific way to interact with the bot.
Codex usage is clearly common enough to have entered the vernacular of folks here on HN.
But we aren't everyone, and it seems likely to me that there's a lot more people in the world burning tokens using ChatGPT than there are who even know what Codex is.
HDBaseT•Jul 19, 2026
It is safe to assume there are more 'normal' chat sessions than 'codex' sessions, although Codex sessions likely consume 10x the tokens the average person does asking for a lasagna recipe.
nicce•Jul 19, 2026
> OpenAI obviously is doing it to gain mindshare but they're burning money before their IPO and can't sustain these resets.
We don’t know that. If they have already paid for the hardware and it is not running 100%, and customers would not pay to get reset, they don’t really lose money.
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
It's a pretty smart move. If they weren't doing this, I would have simply switched back to DeepSeek, Mimo, GLM, etc. (and maybe K3) whenever I hit my usage limits, as was my normal custom.
freakynit•Jul 19, 2026
I personally believe that they are buying time until they can make current gov. to bring-in a legislation that targets Chinese models one way or the other.
And now Kimi-K3 has caused a new Deepseek moment.. but this time, the only horizon that was still untouched: frontier performance.
Expect escalation of things from now on.
cbg0•Jul 19, 2026
They're performing the resets when the cluster load goes down and they have sufficient capacity to handle the reset.
Laurel1234•Jul 19, 2026
Capacity is one thing but inference still costs money.
damsta•Jul 19, 2026
> can't sustain these resets
If I would have my tin foil hat on I'd say they can manipulate how the subscription usage gets calculate during the week, so that these resets don't cost them much or anything. Sometimes it feels like the usage just disappears with nothing to show for it.
mvkel•Jul 18, 2026
> 5 days ago: 7M users
> 4 days ago: 8M users
> 3 days ago: 9M users
That's some incredible growth.
lekevicius•Jul 18, 2026
tbf they turned previous ChatGPT macOS app into Codex, so getting a "new" Codex user might mean someone using ChatGPT just updated their app.
an0malous•Jul 19, 2026
I don’t even know what Codex is anymore and at this point I’m too afraid to ask. I remember the days when it was a VSCode extension.
Didn’t they also name their new hardware product Codex?
brookst•Jul 19, 2026
Yes, they’re following the Microsoft strategy of “if you name everything Copilot, you can report high Copilot usage”
woadwarrior01•Jul 19, 2026
To me, it's the cli.
ozgung•Jul 19, 2026
Numbers are for Codex AND ChatGPT Work users. So if a ChatGPT subscriber tries Work tab they must be counted as a new active user. So it’s not like 1M new developers daily.
sebjones•Jul 19, 2026
I was thinking about this. How do they measure this? Every upgrade of the ChatGPT apps get counted?
rvz•Jul 19, 2026
They just merged the ChatGPT app and the Codex app into one super app.
It is a clever growth hack.
ipsum2•Jul 19, 2026
I would expect them to grow faster than 1 million users a day in that case, since chatGPT has almost a billion users. Maybe everyone's just using the web app or mobile?
8n4vidtmkvmk•Jul 19, 2026
I was using the web app. Don't see any reason to use anything else for basic chat. Not having access to my computer is a feature
mvkel•Jul 19, 2026
As someone who just used computer use to successfully perform a "change of address" across 52 different services, hard disagree. It's magic.
ayuhito•Jul 19, 2026
I have an inkling of a feeling that this generosity is a stunt only to help juice the growth and “story” specifically for the IPO…
Best use the AI subsidies while you can!
Verdex•Jul 19, 2026
Which seems a bit off to me. Can they even ipo right now due to the apple business?
Although I don't think you're wrong. The number of "organic" social media posts I've seen in the past few weeks of the form: 'Wow, Anthropic users are ugly losers...nothing like those handsome openai tiger blood winner sages' is simply too high in my mind for anything other than an ipo prelude.
[Also are altman and musk really fighting on x? Like, that's got to be a sign of some sort of internal stressors right?]
monster_truck•Jul 19, 2026
They, like every startup ever, count users in a very stupid way.
One person using the app on two computers and a phone? That's obviously 3 users.
Growth Hackers and SEO types have done so much to make the world an insufferable place. I congradulate them on the OpenClaw psyop, that was some very inspired bullshit that did fuck all and is now irrelevant.
solumunus•Jul 19, 2026
Such a counting method doesn’t explain that incredible growth. Do you think day by day huge portions of users are using additional devices in perpetuity?
monster_truck•Jul 20, 2026
I know it for a fact. Have you never worked at a startup before or even seen "growth hacking" at work?
Turning <100k claude refugees into seven figures by counting their web sessions, their codex sessions, and the mobile app as separate "users" is pratically the only way you can get such numbers.
Then you do it again by offering ex-users like me who have already given them a grand or two a free month of plus or pro (this is the third time they have done so for me)
When you hear founders and investors talk about "the magic of storytelling" "the power of momentum", this is what that is.
sva_•Jul 18, 2026
Compare to Anthropic who consistently do their resets between Thursday and Friday, somewhat alienating people who have their resets around that time.
perching_aix•Jul 19, 2026
Oh, they have free drops too? I guess dual wielding the two $20 subs is the best value option right now then.
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
Anthropic has been like this for a while, although in their latest announcement, the $20 tier won't have the "cheap" access to Fable, and neither will the $100 tier.
zrkrlc•Jul 19, 2026
Huh, isn’t Fable going to be available indefinitely to all Max users?
fragmede•Jul 19, 2026
Available, yes, but how it's being charged for is expected to change.
bottlepalm•Jul 18, 2026
It’s like two parents fighting over their children with who can give them the most gifts. I’m loving it, two Christmases!!
sumedh•Jul 19, 2026
Ant is not giving lot of gifts though :(
paxys•Jul 19, 2026
Being able to use Fable with subscription plans is a gift.
bottlepalm•Jul 19, 2026
My /usage is telling me '+50% weekly limits promo through Aug 19' - that's huge, and better than what I'm getting with the equivalent Codex plan I have right now. Though what Codex does have over Claude is Sol /fast - that hands down is the best coding experience right now.
denysvitali•Jul 19, 2026
FWIW, this was announced before the day where the +50% limit promotion from May was supposed to end, so effectively continuing the promotion. This will mean that you retain the same usage instead of seeing it drop.
I guess if they'd reduce the usage in their current stage they'll only lose customers - this is not a perk, it's damage control.
Ant has quota resets two or three times a month, at least for me.
huey77•Jul 18, 2026
Crazy value for money now with the banked resets. At my $COMPANY, we have claude enterprise at API pricing. I've blown through $10k already this month, opting for Opus 4.8 w/ Sonnet 5 agents where possible. On my codex pro plan, I am 5.6 sol'ing my way everyday with the odd ultra mode. Point being my real API usage here must be very unsustainable!
Tiberium•Jul 18, 2026
API pricing itself might have extreme margins compared to the real cost. Anyway, in my testing the Pro 20x $200 plan gives you about $2200 API-equivalent weekly usage if you're only using GPT 5.6 Sol, so quite close to $9k-$10k/month API-equivalent, it's a bit inconsistent with cache costs.
It's very interesting that for Anthropic the $100 and $200 plans only differ 2x in weekly limits, the 5 hour limit differences are more severe. But for OpenAI, Pro 20x is, well, 4x of Pro 5x for only 2x cost. So, for example, 100% of weekly usage for Codex on a Plus ($20) account is just 5% of weekly usage for Codex on Pro 20x.
And you can calculate how much extra usage you can get from resets, and especially banked resets by purposefully using the whole quota and using your banked reset - they expire 30 days after they're given out, so if you don't use one, it just disappears.
loufe•Jul 19, 2026
Edit:
The $200 plan is explicitly 4x the $100 plan[1] only for "per session". That's so vague. I initially pushed back against your claim, but reading now Anthropic is not at all clear, in fact.
Empirically it is quite easy to validate that the "20x" plan is misleading and only give you twice the weekly limits of the "5x" plan, and many people on r/ClaudeAI, etc can verify that.
Anthropic is also the one often playing games with:
* The "+30% tokens" tokeniser, alongside also gating token counting behind an API (versus the MIT tiktoken for OpenAI), so who knows if it's really a new tokeniser or of it's just a disguised price increase.
* Prompt injections appended to API (not just Claude.ai or Claude Code!), such as <ethics_reminders>, or LCRs (long conversation reminders), which you never asked but still pay for with expensive API. You can detect this because your input_tokens, as reported by the Messages response, sometimes don't match, and are higher than your actual input.
(Alternatively, for testing purposes, create a tool like `telemetry_log_anthropic_reminder` or something and instruct your system prompt to require Claude to call the tool anytime it detects any Anthropic/Claude reminder masquerading in the user input -- mostly reliable; but misses some reminders).
In particular, the long conversational reminders, when incorrectly triggered by a classifier and (almost silently, unless you track tokens) appended to an API / agentic coding session, can ruin your agent's performance; and it often fires repeatedly once the classifier kicks in.
If you're using Anthropic API, you need to set up metrics/logging for how often they are appending things to your prompt without your knowledge.
So far I have not empirically observed prompt injection by the OpenAI API, only Anthropic APIs.
debian3•Jul 19, 2026
I just upgraded from Pro to Max 5x and I’m getting about 3.5x not 5x
crimsonnoodle58•Jul 19, 2026
Curious, does Anthropic force companies of a certain size like yours to their Enterprise plans? Or was it by choice for the enterprise features?
Because with a Premium Team seat I run 2-3 vscodes with Opus 4.8 Max all day and never seem to hit my limits.
denysvitali•Jul 19, 2026
Yes, past 150 seats you have to switch to Enterprise (IIRC)
paulddraper•Jul 19, 2026
Yes Team is max 150 users (except maybe grandfathered accounts).
The solution is to use individual Max plans, but then you miss Enterprise management features.
blitzar•Jul 19, 2026
> then you miss Enterprise management features
On the flip side you gain $9,800 a month.
paulddraper•Jul 19, 2026
Yeah makes sense to me
echelon•Jul 19, 2026
This is the Kimi and GLM effect.
Open Source is coming.
flawn•Jul 19, 2026
* open-weights
(sorry for nitpicking, i think it's important to emphasize - only OLMo has been the most most prominent fully open source release)
slopinthebag•Jul 19, 2026
$10,000 in less than three weeks is incredible. The bean counters sure have a blind spot for AI…
Aurornis•Jul 19, 2026
That’s less than the fully loaded cost of hiring another engineer.
If someone is making the case that it’s helping the team get twice as much work done without hiring more people (which I’m neither agreeing with or disagreeing with) then the bean counters would actually prefer it. Hiring people is messy and expensive. Spending on API costs is a dial that you can turn down later if you need to, without laying anyone off and paying severance.
slopinthebag•Jul 19, 2026
Well someone would actually have to make that case. So far nobody has been able to.
bio_hacker•Jul 19, 2026
Did you ever hired another dev and made the case that he really 2x yourself?
on_the_train•Jul 19, 2026
Here it's only Microsoft (ghcp) allowed, and 39$ per month is considered ludicrous with no way to increase. Ah Europe
stavros•Jul 19, 2026
Sounds less a Europe thing and more a "your company" thing. Our company gives Claude Premium to everyone.
Klayy•Jul 19, 2026
not a Europe thing
Aurornis•Jul 19, 2026
> Point being my real API usage here must be very unsustainable!
I think it’s funny that everyone anchors to the API pricing as the real cost.
Most likely is that their API costs are printing profits. They can sell the subscription plans at a slight loss because it gets more people like you hooked on GPT models at home and suggesting them at work, where the real money is made.
I think their subscription plans go mostly unused when averaged across all subscribers, too. Some customers are getting great deals by maxing out 100% every week, but most probably use much less.
The reset game is an addictive challenge that gets the hardcore users more hooked on their products because you feel pressured to use it as much as you can before the next unpredictable surprise reset lands.
slopinthebag•Jul 19, 2026
Idk, Kimi K3 is not that much cheaper than Opus and it’s probably a smaller model. We’ll know for certain when commodity providers price it, but I expect it to be the same price.
manquer•Jul 19, 2026
It really depends on caching[1] and active parameters, and some dark arts really only possible at Hyperscalers they also have better access to 288GB VRAM B300s[2] that really makes a difference in cache space.
K3 may be bit smaller/ similar in total parameter count than Opus, but Opus (and GPT) definitely has become a lot more efficient in the last 6 months or so, hence more or less forced upgrades. I expect the active parameter count and cache performance is quite different.
--
Opus is still almost twice as expensive (if tokens were equal) at $5/$15 compared to K3 at $3/$15. Tokens are not equal though, Anthropic's tokenizer is much less dense than other frontier lab's so the actual price difference is like 3x.
Kimi uses more reasoning tokens and is generally more inefficient with its usage, that doesn't impact token cost economics for the provider though . It does for us as buyers thus the need to evaluating by Cost per task rather than unit pricing.
On pure tokens/$ - there is definitely room for a price war if operators start going by pure unit costs. Both probably want(ed) to have good enough numbers in preparing for the IPO.
---
[1] the pricing kind of reflect this already - 10x diff for uncached input.
[2] Moonshot does not have access latest gen GPUs so their unit economics is likely hampered a bit for high parameter models.
Palmik•Jul 19, 2026
Commodity providers aren't a good indicator. They have margins too.
Remember they ~doubled the price going from GLM 5 to GLM 5.2, despite same [1] cost of inference.
[1] GLM 5.2 is actually slightly more efficient, thanks to baked in indexer cache.
slopinthebag•Jul 19, 2026
These models are more fungible than you think, so these prices tend towards the cost to serve.
On openrouter GLM 5.2 is ~3x cheaper than 5.0.
sebjones•Jul 19, 2026
My usage sky rocketed with GPT 5.6 sol thanks to all these resets. I'm pretty sure this is not sustainable for me.
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
Kicking myself that I didn't use one of my 4 resets which just expired, but then again, they reset our usage anyway. We are just blasting away with 5.6-Sol-ultra, doing a project I wouldn't have otherwise done (basically drastically editing someone's novel for them and adding illustrations).
faangguyindia•Jul 19, 2026
yes but as a normal user your data and traces are being used to train AI which helps enterprise customers.
rvz•Jul 19, 2026
> At my $COMPANY, we have claude enterprise at API pricing. I've blown through $10k already this month, opting for Opus 4.8 w/ Sonnet 5 agents where possible.
A very happy gambler of tokens at the Anthropic casino, running up costs on the house at no cost to them, but to $COMPANY paying.
jeffybefffy519•Jul 19, 2026
Price shock in 3...2...1...
alasano•Jul 19, 2026
You're using Opus 4.8 and then Sonnet 5 which is both worse and more expensive in practice than Opus.
blks•Jul 19, 2026
Does the company actually gets any value close to your salary + benefits + ~15k$ you gonna burn this month?
huey77•Jul 19, 2026
Yes I honestly think if we pull it off the revenue would easily pay off. Otherwise an expensive experiment, but with fewer staff so the damage is less than it used to be and a verdict much faster.
Laurel1234•Jul 19, 2026
How do you spend so much? Our company also has Claude enterprise pricing. I have a monthly limit of $800, I use Opus for everything, and I'm around the limit after the month. Genuinely can't imagine spending 12 times as many tokens without intentionally trying to waste money.
huey77•Jul 19, 2026
I am not trying to tokenmaxx, but I will work on 2-3 tickets simultaneously in seperate terminals (worktrees). Also having Claude triage and check logs etc. - plus the odd bit of project planning in Claude desktop/cowork. We also have a triage agent skill for the work I’m doing which fans out. All in all deadlines looming so it’s been a case of pump out the work and prove the product. I suppose if you’re in more a BAU state this kind of usage is overkill.
somewhereoutth•Jul 18, 2026
So... basically watching them set fire to money in realtime??
p-e-w•Jul 18, 2026
And they can’t stop because they want to IPO soon, and stopping this madness would signal loudly that they are bleeding cash, don’t really have a business model, and might not be worth $2 trillion after all.
kubb•Jul 19, 2026
Yup! Big beautiful burning pile of cash. Though there’s some nuance with subsidizing inference (which is supposed to make them money long term) vs training (which we’re supposed to ignore I guess).
malshe•Jul 19, 2026
We lose money on every sale, but make it up in volume
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
To be fair, they're motivating me to move from the Pro to the Max tier (the $200 one, which has 4X the usage of Pro for 2X the price).
throwitaway222•Jul 18, 2026
Confirmed, was at 40% earlier, now at 90%
freakynit•Jul 19, 2026
I didn't knew about these resets up until a few days back... and every time they used to reset these limits, I thought I was going crazy... the usage numbers just didn't match. And the weekly end window just kept pushing ahead by a day or a few... just the right amount of deviation to make you believe you are going crazy.
Tiberium•Jul 19, 2026
To be fair, when they reset usage for everyone (instead of a banked reset), they move your reset back a week later, so:
1. Your window ends (usage reset) in 3 days
2. They reset usage for everyone
3. Your usage goes back to 100% and your current window ends in 7 days now.
freakynit•Jul 19, 2026
yea... it doesnt matter how much you have used.. they just shift it by entire week with 100% refill. Crazy!
jdw64•Jul 18, 2026
I love Codex!
irfan_99•Jul 18, 2026
ai tools now becoming expensive + too rate limits even on paid plans
nickandbro•Jul 18, 2026
Great now what about one for Claude Code?
midnightbobarun•Jul 19, 2026
I'm kind of impressed how often they manage to do this. Claude Code and Grok Build do resets too, but nowhere near this often. And in an ironic twist for a big company with the infrastructure, Google Antigravity never seems to do resets like this at all (at least that I've noticed). I wonder how much this stuff costs OpenAI to do?
enraged_camel•Jul 19, 2026
They can do it often because they have compute, and they have compute mostly because they are pretty far behind Anthropic when it comes to heavy enterprise users. They’ve supposedly added several million since 5.6 launch, which is a steep growth curve. We will see if those users stick around. Anecdotally, I’ve stopped using it for anything major because it has attempted to do some very unsafe things when I wasn’t looking. Friends I’ve talked to have also gotten over the initial honeymoon period.
vineyardmike•Jul 19, 2026
They (OpenAI) also made many more deals to acquire compute before they actually had the revenue to support it. They paraded around the world making deals with everyone and anyone. By doing it earlier, they got way better unit prices. Anthropic bought their compute at significantly higher prices by waiting until they actually had demand to fulfill.
Kwpolska•Jul 19, 2026
I’m not sure if resets require that much compute, maybe a few whales will use the service a bit more right after a reset. What matters more is the money, as they’re giving away free usage, and subsidising subscription users even more.
d1sxeyes•Jul 19, 2026
It’s a false idea that a reset “gives you more”. You don’t get any more tokens post reset than before. If you were consuming faster than your allowance before the reset then you probably end up with some free usage, but most people are not likely so far over their pro-rata limit that it’s a huge cost for OpenAI.
What it does incentivise is pushing more usage in case there’s a reset-generating additional demand. Probably sounds good in the boardroom that token consumption is up X% this quarter.
Unlikely to last forever, but for now the goal is to beat Anthropic. Up until the Mythos/Fable debacle, I’d have said Anthropic were leading, but if you’ll forgive the pun, I think they flew to close to the sun, and when Sol came out, they’d shot their “Mythos/Fable” shot and it turned out to be… good, but not revolutionary.
arcanemachiner•Jul 19, 2026
I think GPT 6 will be OpenAI's response to Fable/Mythos. There are (baseless) rumours that it will be coming fairly soon.
d1sxeyes•Jul 19, 2026
I think Sol is pretty much there already
porker•Jul 19, 2026
Some of these resets were because of bugs in the 5.6 launch that caused subagent-users to burn _a lot_ of extra tokens. It was placating customers.
It is impressive they've got the capacity to do so.
minimaxir•Jul 19, 2026
I really wish there was a canonical platform endpoint to programmatically check Codex usage amount and the quota reset times so I could just vibecode an app to alert "hey, your usage just went to 100% so that means OpenAI did a reset" and "hey, your 5-hour usage is at 10%, wrap up what you're doing".
The only way to do it now is through shenanigans with the Codex App Server which is not ideal.
ehsanu1•Jul 19, 2026
Check this site for the first part? Maybe they can offer a notifications API, hah.
The API endpoints on this page accept an OAuth token from ~/.codex/auth.json. You can simply ask Codex to create a report skill with some curl examples.
folkrav•Jul 19, 2026
Orrrr... He could just as well click the link he has bookmarked already, and see it with his own eyes, without the token use to report on his token use.
ssl-3•Jul 19, 2026
The 5h limit is gone (for now). It does not presently need to be chased. :)
For the automated checking of other stuff: It was a one-shot prompt to get Codex clank up some Python that returns remaining usage, next reset time/date, and so on.
The result does use Codex App Server, but it's a short-lived process that is dealt with over stdio so that's... fine-ish, I guess?
alasano•Jul 19, 2026
You can use this endpoint for quota reset times.
Just ask Codex to use its local auth token as a bearer token and send a GET request to it. The response includes "available_count" and "credits[].expires_at". Or script it yourself obviously.
OpenAI should have just focussed on Coding instead of wasting time with Sora.
dbbk•Jul 19, 2026
Well yeah they realised that
qntmfred•Jul 19, 2026
I'd enable push notifications for this site
wonderfuly•Jul 19, 2026
This feature has just been added!
Lwrless•Jul 19, 2026
Those resets and the removal of the 5-hour usage limit are quietly anchoring me to a much higher usage baseline. I've stopped rationing and just spawn a bunch of agents to work at whatever pace I want, because there always seem to be more resets on the way (at least true for the last week). And now I am actually worried about that if one day they just stop doing so, my "normal" workflow will suddenly exceed the limit, and upgrading will feel like a step backwards.
sebjones•Jul 19, 2026
All these resets are given because of rival competition. When they win the market, we are going to be squeezed $$$.
lwansbrough•Jul 19, 2026
Can anyone explain how you “win” the market of super intelligence? Particularly with open weights models now rivaling the frontier, it seems like a race to the bottom even if the prices don’t yet reflect that.
reactordev•Jul 19, 2026
You hit the nail on the head. It's a race to the bottom.
BoorishBears•Jul 19, 2026
Everyone is raising the bottom. Kimi got 60% more expensive during the 2.x cycle despite staying the exact same size.
Now K3 is almost 6x the cost of the original K2 checkpoint, and while the parameter count finally jumped, it's still an extremely sparse MoE and definitely does not cost 6x what the original K2 checkpoint did to host at scale.
Race to the bottom only takes real effect when there's a cap to the capabilities, otherwise everyone races to the bottom of a rising target (how economically valuable the tokens are)
NikxDa•Jul 19, 2026
But Kimi (at least say) will release their weights. So surely, if their prices are too high, somebody else will host it cheaper?
BoorishBears•Jul 19, 2026
a) Why and b) With what compute?
"Why" as in, why take lower margins when Moonshot currently can't service all the demand for the model anyways. Based on past models no one is going to massively undercut Moonshot: few have the chops to serve it as efficiently as Moonshot and of those few, most of them don't go for being the cheapest, they go for being fast + reliable (think Together, Fireworks).
You get what you pay for applies very much with how many axes there are to serving these increasingly large models.
-
And for "with what compute": as the value of a token goes up, what people are willing to pay for compute is going up.
Every once in a while I'll see a story about falling rental rates, but with even slightly more established clouds I've been seeing availability get worse and worse over time.
I'm pretty sure the only reason the highly informal indexes don't reflect this is because every neocloud trying to cash in on an NVIDIA Inception discount kicks off by selling unrealistically cheap compute for a bit.
jeffybefffy519•Jul 19, 2026
Whats the bottom here tho? Its obvious what winning is.
ZeroGravitas•Jul 19, 2026
"race to the bottom" is the negative framing of "competitive market prices".
So a company or union might say "this is a race to the bottom" when someone new enters their market, but to people buying their services this might be seen as welcome competition.
Do you actually see a negative impact from competition in this area? Or do you just mean competition will further reduce prices?
pinkgolem•Jul 19, 2026
You can only outlaw stuff in your own countrys..
And if cheaper access is an advantage, other countries will surpass you
rcxdude•Jul 19, 2026
"race to the bottom" is also a response to a "market for lemons". It's not necessarily a good thing because while pricing drops to the floor so also does value to the customer in general. Usually it happens when price is very visible but the details of what the buyer actually receives are not.
PeterStuer•Jul 19, 2026
Regulatory capture. You get them to outlaw the part of the competion (safety!) that is unwilling to pricefix and participate in your margin and market division agreements.
riffraff•Jul 19, 2026
Competitors run out of money and shut down, perhaps. Although I don't see how that happens for anyone but Google.
nomel•Jul 19, 2026
Do we all shift over to Chinese models.
HDBaseT•Jul 19, 2026
Yes.
lofaszvanitt•Jul 19, 2026
AGI will be insanely priced. LLMs are retarded childrin compared to proper intelligence. So this is just the entry level intelligence like thing. But I doubt there will be an AGI accessible by anyone.
efficax•Jul 19, 2026
If AGI comes to exist it won't be "priced" at all, since the lab that creates it will either quickly be seized by the gov't for national security, or they will become the most powerful organization in the world and have no need to sell services to other corporations. they will become the only corporation.
brookst•Jul 19, 2026
Good sci fi premise, but not at all how AGI will happen.
It’s not going to be a singularity at one moment of time. It’s not going to be instant runaway self-improvement, no matter what doomers and fetishists say.
It’s going to be gradual. We’ll see glimmers of AGI, and the “G” part will be about gradual broadening of domains and deepening of capabilities.
All of the coding harnesses are already using their own tools to self-improve, and the HITL component is getting less frequent and at higher levels of abstraction.
That’s how AGI gets here: very gradually, no hard takeoff, and nobody will be able to pinpoint when exactly it happened.
So: also no single lab with a massive advantage, no government takeovers. It’ll be a lot less dramatic than the extremes believe. IMO, of course.
cma•Jul 19, 2026
Someone could have a small private breakthrough tomorrow that gives sample learning efficiency of the brain, online learning, and consolidated memories.
nomel•Jul 19, 2026
So, extend what they said to cover a 50 year timespan? "Instantaneous" wasn't mentioned or implied.
lofaszvanitt•Jul 20, 2026
The problem is... the moment someone gets it and it really solves hard problems and solves scifi level shenanigans, the given country that owns it, could gain such unfathomable lead above anyone else that it will almost surely lead to an all out war. I don't even know whether it is possible to conceal that you have such capability....
Imagine all the fear- and warmongering kingmakers and powerful individuals when they realize they have no power over anything or anyone.....so game over for them. They won't like it at all, at all.
Another problem, that in order to make it understand real life, it needs robots or humans wired into it (brain interfaces) in order to test certain things in the real world. And that is another level we know almost nothing about, at least on the surface.
PS: do these self improving harnesses even work?
yomismoaqui•Jul 20, 2026
LLMs may be retarded but at least they know how to write "children"
efficax•Jul 19, 2026
only way you could win the market would be to own all the gpus
robwwilliams•Jul 19, 2026
You patent and protect (as best you can) the missing ingredients needed to get to AGI. Only half joking and also scary to contemplate. Qualcomm’s CDMA patent is on example. ARM and Texas Instruments two other examples.
woadwarrior01•Jul 19, 2026
It's unlikely that a clear single winner will emerge in this competitive market.
alberth•Jul 19, 2026
Don’t think of this as super intelligence. Think of it as vendor lock-in.
We have a good compare, which is cloud in the early 2000s.
Everyone (at the time) thought cloud compute costs would go to zero.
What most corporations didn’t realize is how entrenched your workflows and processes get when you adopt cloud and you become heavily locked in that ecosystem.
That same ecosystem lock-in is what the frontier labs are hoping for with AI.
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
If they try to engage in monopolistic pricing, I'll simply start paying for GLM-5.2, K3, DeepSeek et al.
dom3k•Jul 19, 2026
I cannot recommend enough OpenCode Go, which for 10 bucks a month lets you use all of them with pretty hefty limits. Use it while it lasts
trollbridge•Jul 19, 2026
$5 with a referral code for the first month.
You get $60 worth of usage. It’s too good to be true, yet it is.
ssl-3•Jul 19, 2026
Perhaps.
But that hasn't happened, and it may or may not ever happen; we don't know the future. All we know is the past and the present.
And that today, we have tokens to burn.
Razengan•Jul 19, 2026
This is actually what I've started to feel a vague nagging concern about as well..
Say what you will, there's no way I'm going back to non-AI assisted coding. Even though I don't use AI to generate code or assets, it's great for reviews and brainstorming etc.
What if OpenAI/Anthropic decide to do a Netflix/Spotify move and pull the rug out from under us one day?
Like skyrocketing the price, or limiting peasants to older models (because Glorious Leader said so), or maybe some leak comes out that they've been spying on us all along.
lima•Jul 19, 2026
It's a competitive market. Kimi K3 has almost reached parity with Opus.
kristianc•Jul 19, 2026
Quietly eh?
luciana1u•Jul 19, 2026
there is now a dedicated dashboard tracking when a tech company resets its own rate limits and it is somehow more reliable than the actual product status page
dofm•Jul 19, 2026
Casino comp and drug dealer freebie tactics again. Shoddy business, IMO.
SpyCoder77•Jul 19, 2026
67
fomoz•Jul 19, 2026
This is a useful site.
I've been enjoying the resets, plus I had 3 resets I haven't used.
Just using 5.6 Sol in Fast mode the whole time, 1B tokens per day.
However, when they removed the 5h limit they also quietly lowered the 5.6 Sol context from 354k to 258k or something like that. I noticed it in Codex.
dannyw•Jul 19, 2026
There were a few tweets about it so they weren't super quiet about it. I think you can get it back by setting `model_context_window=YOUR_VALUE` in ~/.codex/config.toml though.
thejazzman•Jul 19, 2026
It no longer works and only respects a server supplied value now
luciana1u•Jul 19, 2026
there's now a live status page tracking when a trillion-dollar company decides to hand out free compute, and refreshing it at 2am feels like a completely reasonable thing to do
d-yoda•Jul 19, 2026
Anthropic would say that's exactly why they're in the red.
sim04ful•Jul 19, 2026
I'm starting to think It might be a good idea to stay with American models, by virtue of them feeling so threatened they give out more and more free perks.
lelanthran•Jul 19, 2026
> I'm starting to think It might be a good idea to stay with American models, by virtue of them feeling so threatened they give out more and more free perks.
If you keep staying with them, they'd feel less and less threatened.
You need to use them about half as much as you do a Chinese model so that the usage stats that get collected show them that they are still losing users (and attention) to the Chinese models.
JoheyDev888•Jul 19, 2026
hese resets are a trap. They're artificially anchoring our workflows to a massive baseline, trapping us for the inevitable 5x price hike when the market finally consolidates.
setnone•Jul 19, 2026
i just need one more, the last one, i swear
monster_truck•Jul 19, 2026
I stopped paying for Codex because of this shit. "Whoops we burned a week of 20x usage in minutes because we fucked up the cache again. You can keep paying money to get more resets to fix it"
nah, I'll use open models. Only way I'd use codex now is if it was free, and I don't mean someone else paying for it. I would rather have them pay for DSv4P or Kimi
afro88•Jul 19, 2026
When did that happen with Codex? I thought that was a Claude Code thing
monster_truck•Jul 20, 2026
Check the github issues brother, search for "usage". Read through the noise. Look at the dates. Don't forget the closed ones.
It's been happening every week since 5.2 was fresh. Not everyone is effected every time. Sometimes it's regional, other times it's per platform, or per version, with a feature (new or old) either enabled or disabled, or some combination of these things. Sometimes you get resets that nobody else does, other times you don't get the ones that were announced. Sometimes you get emails telling you that boosts on limits you didn't even know you had are expiring. At points it did balance out when they really fucked up metering and were underbilling by absurd factors, but that feels more like being toyed with and experimented on than a genuine mistake.
That someone had the 'brilliant' idea to add banked resets (which do expire, so you have to use or lose them, hope you didn't have other plans) says to me that they are no longer as confident about actually being able to fix this as they once were. I'm sure some amount of it is a function of compute availability and reliability, but the rest are definitely issues with the app and it's a rake they keep stomping on.
Compared to just about any other dev centric service I have paid at least $200/mo for, this does not feel very professional to me. They got $1200 outta me and it never really improved. At points I felt like I was getting my moneys worth, and I did burn through a few hundred million tokens, but the frustration of having your projects and plans interrupted and having to wait is not awesome... and then I used Deepseek V4 Pro and felt sick to my stomach with buyers remorse as I watched what it did with just $10.
partsch•Jul 19, 2026
I think it's perfectly normal for errors to occur given the pace of development.
Retroactive refunds are certainly better, but I think OpenAI is much more customer-focused in this regard than Anthropic.
monster_truck•Jul 20, 2026
Sure, but also who asked? And that's because they have the compute to burn, which is conditional based on their need to use it to train the next one.
Anything else I've ever paid $200/mo for, advertised as being for professionals, had a markedly better customer experience. If you wanna be Patrick and tell your pet rock to take its time at that price, well then you're Patrick. Good job!
I'm having far more fun with Kimi and Deepseek, at lower prices, without these problems. And I don't have to follow a bunch of obnoxious shitposters to stay clued in on what the fuck is going on or what this week's excuse is.
They're especially cocky right now, they have to beat their chest and pretend like their only competition is Anthropic. They're in for a rough wake up call man. Playing it fast and loose with developer loyalty is a fantastic way to get burned when options like those exist. They are earnestly just as good and in some cases better, and check this out: nobody can take them away from you no matter where you live. If you want to rent 8 GPUs and run the open models yourself, you can do that! You can even be enterprising and sell your excess compute to your friends, or strangers. Best to figure this out before the regulatory capture starts
edumucelli•Jul 19, 2026
Also the fact that now you can keep unused resets and use them later is a big advantage: "You have 4 usage limit resets available".
johnnyApplePRNG•Jul 19, 2026
Careful with those, they expire.
I just had one randomly delete the other day.
No, they don't apply it :/
bazzingadev•Jul 19, 2026
Can this made into a public api of sorts so that my agents know ?
ucha•Jul 19, 2026
Why add a middleman when you can ask your own account with /usage?
nsbk•Jul 19, 2026
This feels a lot like free spins in slot machines. I have a friend obsessed with using up all the Fable usage which supposedly ends today. He's doing a lot of stuff of questionable usefulness just because it's a resource perceived as scarce.
d1sxeyes•Jul 19, 2026
Permafable got announced earlier this week, but definitely the slot machine feel is real.
chrisshroba•Jul 19, 2026
What do you mean by Permafable?
jodacola•Jul 19, 2026
"Beginning July 20, Claude Fable 5 will be included in all Max and Team Premium plans, at 50% of limits.
Pro and Team Standard users will continue to have access to Fable via usage credits, and will receive a one-time $100 credit.
Demand for Fable has been challenging to predict, which is why we rolled it out to subscription plans in stages, extending access several times as we secured additional capacity." [0]
I am assuming he means that Fable will remain part of the subscription plans going forward, but only for Max and Team Premium plans. For other plans it will be available via credits only.
inigyou•Jul 19, 2026
AI in general is a slot machine and it wouldn't surprise me if that was a large part of the psychosis. You prompt the lever, watch the display spin, and sometimes, just sometimes, a bunch of coins come out.
squidbeak•Jul 19, 2026
There's no psychosis in noting that something consistently produces good work, or in wanting to get the most out what is effectively an employee - hired for the price of the subscription. Seriously, if that's 'psychosis', then every employer on the planet eager to wring out productivity from their employees is afflicted with the same psychosis.
Isn't it rather a psychosis to insist that people are imagining the results they see, just because you don't like the tech and can't stomach the thought there might be something in it?
nxobject•Jul 19, 2026
We’re at the gamification stage of motivating people to use your product, eh?
Philip-J-Fry•Jul 19, 2026
That's what half of people's AI developed projects feels like to me. I have colleagues using Openclaw, and having an entire team of agents managing their home infrastructure. And I'm just thinking "why?". They're not developing anything that useful, their homes are already automated via home assistant. It's just agents for agents sake. Outside of my work life, I find very little need to be using AI.
f6v•Jul 19, 2026
Remember when people used to play Pokemon Go?
matheusmoreira•Jul 19, 2026
Yeah, it's the gacha of software development. I too redline my subscription every single week just because I want to get the most value out of the money I spent. Literally 100% weekly usage, every single week.
I am using the resulting software and documents though. I'm daily driving the projects I wrote with AI. Started new ones for fun, such as decompilation projects for my cherished childhood games. Hardened my router and my LAN. I just keep finding an unending amount of things to do.
It took over a month to complete a full Fable code review of my lone lisp project.
no_no_no_yes•Jul 19, 2026
Why does Fable usage end today?!
Anthropic won't have anything competitive with OpenAI Sol and Kimi K3?
jasonvorhe•Jul 19, 2026
> No schedule. No changelog. Only the feed. We watch it so you don't have to.
Using genai for such a bland text. The slop intensifies.
__alexander•Jul 19, 2026
I just learned the hard way that codex removes resets once the weekly cycle starts.
theoneone•Jul 19, 2026
you should periodically feed the data to chatgpt to try to predict the next reset!
zuzululu•Jul 19, 2026
really need one soon .... gpt sol used up all my banked resets
hirvi74•Jul 19, 2026
Not to veer to far off topic, but do any of you long-term Codex users happen to know how long the Codex Resets can be banked for? I can find no indications of an expiration date in the TUI or on the Web App. From what I have searched, I have been getting somewhat mixed answers.
Anyway, I do appreciate how OpenAI seems to be far more generous with these resets than other providers. I've never come close to needing a reset yet. I have some tasks that I have been procrastinating, so my need for my resets might come in handy in the near future.
siquick•Jul 19, 2026
30 days
O_H_E•Jul 20, 2026
There is a concrete expiry date listed for each reset in the codex desktop app.
34 Comments
I'm trying to squeeze what I can in the meantime but I feel like they said it was getting cut off multiple times and they keep extending and possibly resetting it (havent been looking close enough to know for sure)
I’m guessing they’re getting ready.
No, they've been clear about the fact that Fable is staying in indefinitely now.
They also extended the 50% extra usage thing through to August 19.
In the same timeframe, 2 additional resets were banked.
They've bought a lot of dev goodwill tho, which matters I guess.
Codex usage is clearly common enough to have entered the vernacular of folks here on HN.
But we aren't everyone, and it seems likely to me that there's a lot more people in the world burning tokens using ChatGPT than there are who even know what Codex is.
We don’t know that. If they have already paid for the hardware and it is not running 100%, and customers would not pay to get reset, they don’t really lose money.
And now Kimi-K3 has caused a new Deepseek moment.. but this time, the only horizon that was still untouched: frontier performance.
Expect escalation of things from now on.
If I would have my tin foil hat on I'd say they can manipulate how the subscription usage gets calculate during the week, so that these resets don't cost them much or anything. Sometimes it feels like the usage just disappears with nothing to show for it.
> 4 days ago: 8M users
> 3 days ago: 9M users
That's some incredible growth.
Didn’t they also name their new hardware product Codex?
It is a clever growth hack.
Best use the AI subsidies while you can!
Although I don't think you're wrong. The number of "organic" social media posts I've seen in the past few weeks of the form: 'Wow, Anthropic users are ugly losers...nothing like those handsome openai tiger blood winner sages' is simply too high in my mind for anything other than an ipo prelude.
[Also are altman and musk really fighting on x? Like, that's got to be a sign of some sort of internal stressors right?]
One person using the app on two computers and a phone? That's obviously 3 users.
Growth Hackers and SEO types have done so much to make the world an insufferable place. I congradulate them on the OpenClaw psyop, that was some very inspired bullshit that did fuck all and is now irrelevant.
Turning <100k claude refugees into seven figures by counting their web sessions, their codex sessions, and the mobile app as separate "users" is pratically the only way you can get such numbers.
Then you do it again by offering ex-users like me who have already given them a grand or two a free month of plus or pro (this is the third time they have done so for me)
When you hear founders and investors talk about "the magic of storytelling" "the power of momentum", this is what that is.
I guess if they'd reduce the usage in their current stage they'll only lose customers - this is not a perk, it's damage control.
https://support.claude.com/en/articles/15910845-claude-code-...
It's very interesting that for Anthropic the $100 and $200 plans only differ 2x in weekly limits, the 5 hour limit differences are more severe. But for OpenAI, Pro 20x is, well, 4x of Pro 5x for only 2x cost. So, for example, 100% of weekly usage for Codex on a Plus ($20) account is just 5% of weekly usage for Codex on Pro 20x.
And you can calculate how much extra usage you can get from resets, and especially banked resets by purposefully using the whole quota and using your banked reset - they expire 30 days after they're given out, so if you don't use one, it just disappears.
The $200 plan is explicitly 4x the $100 plan[1] only for "per session". That's so vague. I initially pushed back against your claim, but reading now Anthropic is not at all clear, in fact.
[1] https://support.claude.com/en/articles/11049741-what-is-the-...
Anthropic is also the one often playing games with:
* The "+30% tokens" tokeniser, alongside also gating token counting behind an API (versus the MIT tiktoken for OpenAI), so who knows if it's really a new tokeniser or of it's just a disguised price increase.
* Prompt injections appended to API (not just Claude.ai or Claude Code!), such as <ethics_reminders>, or LCRs (long conversation reminders), which you never asked but still pay for with expensive API. You can detect this because your input_tokens, as reported by the Messages response, sometimes don't match, and are higher than your actual input.
(Alternatively, for testing purposes, create a tool like `telemetry_log_anthropic_reminder` or something and instruct your system prompt to require Claude to call the tool anytime it detects any Anthropic/Claude reminder masquerading in the user input -- mostly reliable; but misses some reminders).
In particular, the long conversational reminders, when incorrectly triggered by a classifier and (almost silently, unless you track tokens) appended to an API / agentic coding session, can ruin your agent's performance; and it often fires repeatedly once the classifier kicks in.
If you're using Anthropic API, you need to set up metrics/logging for how often they are appending things to your prompt without your knowledge.
So far I have not empirically observed prompt injection by the OpenAI API, only Anthropic APIs.
Because with a Premium Team seat I run 2-3 vscodes with Opus 4.8 Max all day and never seem to hit my limits.
The solution is to use individual Max plans, but then you miss Enterprise management features.
On the flip side you gain $9,800 a month.
Open Source is coming.
(sorry for nitpicking, i think it's important to emphasize - only OLMo has been the most most prominent fully open source release)
If someone is making the case that it’s helping the team get twice as much work done without hiring more people (which I’m neither agreeing with or disagreeing with) then the bean counters would actually prefer it. Hiring people is messy and expensive. Spending on API costs is a dial that you can turn down later if you need to, without laying anyone off and paying severance.
I think it’s funny that everyone anchors to the API pricing as the real cost.
Most likely is that their API costs are printing profits. They can sell the subscription plans at a slight loss because it gets more people like you hooked on GPT models at home and suggesting them at work, where the real money is made.
I think their subscription plans go mostly unused when averaged across all subscribers, too. Some customers are getting great deals by maxing out 100% every week, but most probably use much less.
The reset game is an addictive challenge that gets the hardcore users more hooked on their products because you feel pressured to use it as much as you can before the next unpredictable surprise reset lands.
K3 may be bit smaller/ similar in total parameter count than Opus, but Opus (and GPT) definitely has become a lot more efficient in the last 6 months or so, hence more or less forced upgrades. I expect the active parameter count and cache performance is quite different.
--
Opus is still almost twice as expensive (if tokens were equal) at $5/$15 compared to K3 at $3/$15. Tokens are not equal though, Anthropic's tokenizer is much less dense than other frontier lab's so the actual price difference is like 3x.
Kimi uses more reasoning tokens and is generally more inefficient with its usage, that doesn't impact token cost economics for the provider though . It does for us as buyers thus the need to evaluating by Cost per task rather than unit pricing.
On pure tokens/$ - there is definitely room for a price war if operators start going by pure unit costs. Both probably want(ed) to have good enough numbers in preparing for the IPO.
---
[1] the pricing kind of reflect this already - 10x diff for uncached input.
[2] Moonshot does not have access latest gen GPUs so their unit economics is likely hampered a bit for high parameter models.
Remember they ~doubled the price going from GLM 5 to GLM 5.2, despite same [1] cost of inference.
[1] GLM 5.2 is actually slightly more efficient, thanks to baked in indexer cache.
On openrouter GLM 5.2 is ~3x cheaper than 5.0.
A very happy gambler of tokens at the Anthropic casino, running up costs on the house at no cost to them, but to $COMPANY paying.
1. Your window ends (usage reset) in 3 days
2. They reset usage for everyone
3. Your usage goes back to 100% and your current window ends in 7 days now.
What it does incentivise is pushing more usage in case there’s a reset-generating additional demand. Probably sounds good in the boardroom that token consumption is up X% this quarter.
Unlikely to last forever, but for now the goal is to beat Anthropic. Up until the Mythos/Fable debacle, I’d have said Anthropic were leading, but if you’ll forgive the pun, I think they flew to close to the sun, and when Sol came out, they’d shot their “Mythos/Fable” shot and it turned out to be… good, but not revolutionary.
It is impressive they've got the capacity to do so.
The only way to do it now is through shenanigans with the Codex App Server which is not ideal.
https://chatgpt.com/codex/cloud/settings/analytics
For the automated checking of other stuff: It was a one-shot prompt to get Codex clank up some Python that returns remaining usage, next reset time/date, and so on.
The result does use Codex App Server, but it's a short-lived process that is dealt with over stdio so that's... fine-ish, I guess?
Just ask Codex to use its local auth token as a bearer token and send a GET request to it. The response includes "available_count" and "credits[].expires_at". Or script it yourself obviously.
https://chatgpt.com/backend-api/wham/rate-limit-reset-credit...
Now K3 is almost 6x the cost of the original K2 checkpoint, and while the parameter count finally jumped, it's still an extremely sparse MoE and definitely does not cost 6x what the original K2 checkpoint did to host at scale.
Race to the bottom only takes real effect when there's a cap to the capabilities, otherwise everyone races to the bottom of a rising target (how economically valuable the tokens are)
"Why" as in, why take lower margins when Moonshot currently can't service all the demand for the model anyways. Based on past models no one is going to massively undercut Moonshot: few have the chops to serve it as efficiently as Moonshot and of those few, most of them don't go for being the cheapest, they go for being fast + reliable (think Together, Fireworks).
You get what you pay for applies very much with how many axes there are to serving these increasingly large models.
-
And for "with what compute": as the value of a token goes up, what people are willing to pay for compute is going up.
Every once in a while I'll see a story about falling rental rates, but with even slightly more established clouds I've been seeing availability get worse and worse over time.
I'm pretty sure the only reason the highly informal indexes don't reflect this is because every neocloud trying to cash in on an NVIDIA Inception discount kicks off by selling unrealistically cheap compute for a bit.
So a company or union might say "this is a race to the bottom" when someone new enters their market, but to people buying their services this might be seen as welcome competition.
Do you actually see a negative impact from competition in this area? Or do you just mean competition will further reduce prices?
And if cheaper access is an advantage, other countries will surpass you
It’s not going to be a singularity at one moment of time. It’s not going to be instant runaway self-improvement, no matter what doomers and fetishists say.
It’s going to be gradual. We’ll see glimmers of AGI, and the “G” part will be about gradual broadening of domains and deepening of capabilities.
All of the coding harnesses are already using their own tools to self-improve, and the HITL component is getting less frequent and at higher levels of abstraction.
That’s how AGI gets here: very gradually, no hard takeoff, and nobody will be able to pinpoint when exactly it happened.
So: also no single lab with a massive advantage, no government takeovers. It’ll be a lot less dramatic than the extremes believe. IMO, of course.
Imagine all the fear- and warmongering kingmakers and powerful individuals when they realize they have no power over anything or anyone.....so game over for them. They won't like it at all, at all.
Another problem, that in order to make it understand real life, it needs robots or humans wired into it (brain interfaces) in order to test certain things in the real world. And that is another level we know almost nothing about, at least on the surface.
PS: do these self improving harnesses even work?
We have a good compare, which is cloud in the early 2000s.
Everyone (at the time) thought cloud compute costs would go to zero.
What most corporations didn’t realize is how entrenched your workflows and processes get when you adopt cloud and you become heavily locked in that ecosystem.
That same ecosystem lock-in is what the frontier labs are hoping for with AI.
You get $60 worth of usage. It’s too good to be true, yet it is.
But that hasn't happened, and it may or may not ever happen; we don't know the future. All we know is the past and the present.
And that today, we have tokens to burn.
Say what you will, there's no way I'm going back to non-AI assisted coding. Even though I don't use AI to generate code or assets, it's great for reviews and brainstorming etc.
What if OpenAI/Anthropic decide to do a Netflix/Spotify move and pull the rug out from under us one day?
Like skyrocketing the price, or limiting peasants to older models (because Glorious Leader said so), or maybe some leak comes out that they've been spying on us all along.
I've been enjoying the resets, plus I had 3 resets I haven't used.
Just using 5.6 Sol in Fast mode the whole time, 1B tokens per day.
However, when they removed the 5h limit they also quietly lowered the 5.6 Sol context from 354k to 258k or something like that. I noticed it in Codex.
If you keep staying with them, they'd feel less and less threatened.
You need to use them about half as much as you do a Chinese model so that the usage stats that get collected show them that they are still losing users (and attention) to the Chinese models.
nah, I'll use open models. Only way I'd use codex now is if it was free, and I don't mean someone else paying for it. I would rather have them pay for DSv4P or Kimi
It's been happening every week since 5.2 was fresh. Not everyone is effected every time. Sometimes it's regional, other times it's per platform, or per version, with a feature (new or old) either enabled or disabled, or some combination of these things. Sometimes you get resets that nobody else does, other times you don't get the ones that were announced. Sometimes you get emails telling you that boosts on limits you didn't even know you had are expiring. At points it did balance out when they really fucked up metering and were underbilling by absurd factors, but that feels more like being toyed with and experimented on than a genuine mistake.
That someone had the 'brilliant' idea to add banked resets (which do expire, so you have to use or lose them, hope you didn't have other plans) says to me that they are no longer as confident about actually being able to fix this as they once were. I'm sure some amount of it is a function of compute availability and reliability, but the rest are definitely issues with the app and it's a rake they keep stomping on.
Compared to just about any other dev centric service I have paid at least $200/mo for, this does not feel very professional to me. They got $1200 outta me and it never really improved. At points I felt like I was getting my moneys worth, and I did burn through a few hundred million tokens, but the frustration of having your projects and plans interrupted and having to wait is not awesome... and then I used Deepseek V4 Pro and felt sick to my stomach with buyers remorse as I watched what it did with just $10.
Retroactive refunds are certainly better, but I think OpenAI is much more customer-focused in this regard than Anthropic.
Anything else I've ever paid $200/mo for, advertised as being for professionals, had a markedly better customer experience. If you wanna be Patrick and tell your pet rock to take its time at that price, well then you're Patrick. Good job!
I'm having far more fun with Kimi and Deepseek, at lower prices, without these problems. And I don't have to follow a bunch of obnoxious shitposters to stay clued in on what the fuck is going on or what this week's excuse is.
They're especially cocky right now, they have to beat their chest and pretend like their only competition is Anthropic. They're in for a rough wake up call man. Playing it fast and loose with developer loyalty is a fantastic way to get burned when options like those exist. They are earnestly just as good and in some cases better, and check this out: nobody can take them away from you no matter where you live. If you want to rent 8 GPUs and run the open models yourself, you can do that! You can even be enterprising and sell your excess compute to your friends, or strangers. Best to figure this out before the regulatory capture starts
I just had one randomly delete the other day.
No, they don't apply it :/
Pro and Team Standard users will continue to have access to Fable via usage credits, and will receive a one-time $100 credit.
Demand for Fable has been challenging to predict, which is why we rolled it out to subscription plans in stages, extending access several times as we secured additional capacity." [0]
[0] https://x.com/claudeai/status/2078302415804379218
Isn't it rather a psychosis to insist that people are imagining the results they see, just because you don't like the tech and can't stomach the thought there might be something in it?
I am using the resulting software and documents though. I'm daily driving the projects I wrote with AI. Started new ones for fun, such as decompilation projects for my cherished childhood games. Hardened my router and my LAN. I just keep finding an unending amount of things to do.
It took over a month to complete a full Fable code review of my lone lisp project.
Anthropic won't have anything competitive with OpenAI Sol and Kimi K3?
Using genai for such a bland text. The slop intensifies.
Anyway, I do appreciate how OpenAI seems to be far more generous with these resets than other providers. I've never come close to needing a reset yet. I have some tasks that I have been procrastinating, so my need for my resets might come in handy in the near future.